We have seen three excellent months on the warehouse market

JLL has summarised the first quarter of 2016 on the warehouse property market. These were favourable three months, in which the gross demand – taking into account extensions of existing contracts – reached 680,000 sqm, with new agreements generating a demand of 374,000 sqm. This is the best first quarter result in the last 10 years, which bodes well for the rest of the year. Additionally, more than 418,000 sqm of new space appeared on the market. Consequently, the total supply of warehouse space in Poland amounted to over 10 million sqm. This result has strengthened Poland’s position as the ninth country in Europe in terms of supply.

The amount of space leased in the first quarter of this year is 100,000 sqm higher as compared to he last year’s first three months. Areas that were popular among tenants include Warsaw Suburbs – 184,000 sqm, Upper Silesia – 142,000 sqm and Poznań – over 123,000 sqm. The absolute record in terms of delivered space belongs to Panattoni Europe. The developer delivered over 280,000 sqm of space.

As soon as last year, more than a third of warehouse space was leased by logistics tenants. The results of the current JLL report suggest that the industry is entering its golden age. In the first quarter of 2016, the share of the logistics industry in the net demand amounted to more than 42 percent. Recently, light manufacturing industry and retail chains were also active on the market.

The developers remain very active

Currently, 640,000 sqm of industrial and warehouse space is under construction, which places the warehouse industry right behind the office industry, but ahead of the shopping centre industry. The largest number of warehouses is being constructed in Poznań – 160,000 sqm, Warsaw Suburbs – 108,000 sqm, and Central Poland – 106,000 sqm.

What comes as a surprise are the figures related to the space under construction, as 349 thousand sqm is built on a speculative basis, that is without binding lease agreements. Our data shows that the largest amount of speculative space is being constructed in Poznań – over 80,000 sqm, Central Poland – over 70,000 sqm, and Wrocław – over 40,000 sqm.

By the end of March, the vacancy rate reached 6.7 percent, which is 0.5 percent more as compared to the data collected at the end of last year. The increase in the vacancy rate is caused by the delivery of buildings that were built on a speculative basis. High demand for warehouse space will continue to encourage developers to implement this kind of investment projects. The e-commerce sector will certainly contribute to the dynamic growth of the warehouse market, which will in turn increase the demand for space in the logistics industry. An analysis of the JLL report data allows us to expect that the following quarters of 2016 are going to bring better and better results.

Tomasz Olszewski


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