Following the best ever quarterly result in terms of gross take-up (904,000 m²) in Q3 2016, with just months until the end of the year the volume leased is already just below the 2.24 million m² which was transacted on in the whole of 2015.
Lease agreements exceeding 900,000 sq m of industrial space were signed in Q3 2016 alone. This included the largest ever single transaction in the history of the Polish market – 130,000 sq m for Zalando near Szczecin. Advisory firm JLL summarizes the situation on the industrial market in Poland by the end of Q3 2016.
Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency Poland at JLL, says: “By the end of Q3 2016, gross demand for industrial space in Poland was over 2.2 million sq m. More than 900,000 sq m was leased in the period between July and the end of September, which is so far the year's best quarterly result in terms of gross take-up. Furthermore, the largest ever single transaction for Poland's industrial market was concluded in Q3 2016 – Zalando signed a lease agreement for 130,000 sq m with Goodman, a thriving developer in Poland. Taking into consideration the fact that occupiers have historically always been very active in the fourth quarter, we can, with a degree of certainty, forecast that the gross take-up for 2016 will hit an historically high level of approximately 3 million sq m”.
Among the five major industrial markets, Warsaw Suburbs has accounted for the largest share of demand so far this year - 540,000 sq m (24%).
“In Q3 2016, developers delivered an additional 363,000 sq m of new industrial space, increasing total stock to almost 11 million sq m. Developers maintain their high pace – there was nearly 854,000 sq m of new space in 40 investments under development by the end of September 2016. Locations outside the five major regions accounted for 304,000 sq m of total volume”, comments Przemysław Ciupek, Senior Research Analyst at JLL.
The last quarter saw strong activity in the development sector from Panattoni (233,000 sq m), SEGRO (57,000 sq m) and Goodman (32,500 sq m).
35% of space is being developed on a speculative basis, without binding lease agreements.
Over the last quarter the vacancy rate in Poland dropped by 0.1 bps, reaching an all-time low of 6.0%. Decreases in vacant space were observed in Warsaw Suburbs (7.8% in Q3 vs 10.1% by the end of Q2 2016), Poznań (4.0% vs 4.6%) and Central Poland (4.4% vs 4.6%).
With the exception of Warsaw Inner City, where the upper band of headline rents dropped slightly in Q3 (from €5.3 / sq m / month to €5.1 / sq m / month), no other significant changes were recorded in Poland’s regions. Central Poland (mainly Stryków and Piotrków Trybunalski) still offers the most attractive rents for big-box units (ranging from €2.6 to €3.2 / sq m / month), followed by Upper Silesia and Poznań (€2.8 to €3.5 / sq m / month for both markets).