Poland's Industrial Market in 2015, Report

The 10 million m² threshold was nearly crossed, with new completions at slightly below 1 million m² in 2015. Gross take-up was at a historical high, for the third consecutive year, following strong development activity dominated by a few major developers.


The 10 million m² threshold was nearly crossed, with new completions at slightly below 1 million m² in 2015. Gross take-up was at a historical high, for the third consecutive year, following strong development activity dominated by a few major developers.

In 2015, Poland’s economy once again performed reasonably well, with strong GDP growth (+3.6%) and a further decline of the unemployment rate to slightly below 10%.

With significant amounts of optimism after the exceeding of the 2 million m² level of gross take-up in 2014, the warehouse/industrial market continues its success story.

Last year proved to be another great year for warehouse market activity, seeing 1.47 million m² of net take-up and also 0.75 million m² of renewals. However, the record amount of demand in 2008 (1.55 million m² of net take-up) is still unbeaten.

The supply side can be described as being largely controlled by a few major and most active developers. As of the end of 2015, just one developer (Panattoni) was in the process of developing some 567,000 m² of new space (73% of the total pipeline) across Poland. On some regional markets, such as Central Poland, Wrocław and Toruń-Bydgoszcz, only Panattoni is currently providing new space.

As of the end of 2015, 774,000 m² of modern warehouse space was under construction in 33 projects across Poland, focused mainly on major and well-established locations. Some 65% is pre-let and 85% is being developed by major developers which have been active in Poland for quite a long time, such as Panattoni, MLP, SEGRO and Goodman.

Vacancy rates gradually declined during 2015, reaching 6.2% at the end of 2015, compared to 10% a year ago. On some of the regional markets results were very impressive, with Central Poland performing very well on the take-up side and having a vacancy rate which fell from 15.8% to just 4.6%. Other major markets also saw small improvements, except for Wrocław (a 10 bps increase, to 5.8%), Szczecin (up by 580 bps) and Kraków (up by 80 bps).

During 2014 and 2015, headline rents remained stable in the Warsaw Suburbs, Warsaw Inner City, Wrocław, Central Poland and Northern Poland. Minor downward changes were seen in Upper Silesia and Poznań, by €0.1–0.2 / m² / month.

In 2015, the warehouse investment market reported €473 million in transactions, from 14 deals, the majority of which were signed in H2 2015. A significant share (some 36%) of the warehouse investment volume was attributed to three sale-and-lease-back transactions. Portfolio transactions accounted for more than 75% of total volume of warehouse investment market.