Warehouse property market. Forecasts for 2019

During the whole 2018, the companies leased over 3.7 million square meters of warehouse space. As JLL data showed - it was the second best result in the history of the market (after 2017). What changes await the warehouse market in 2019?

- The results for the whole 2018 show that the warehouse and industrial market is at the top. The record low vacancy rate and the high demand for space for rent will encourage developers to implement further projects. There are many reasons to say that we have an extremely interesting year ahead - says Tomasz Olszewski, Regional Director, JLL.

Higher rents

As shown in the JLL report, in most locations in 2018, the announced increase in rents could be observed, especially in the case of effective values, i.e. taking into account the incentives proposed by the developers. This is mainly due to the growing costs of land and construction. In 2019, we can therefore expect a further increase in rents.

At the end of 2018, the warehouse space in Poland reached 15.7 million square meters - three times more than it was 10 years ago, and the market still has great potential for development. After 2018, Poland came second in Europe in terms of the area put into use and the third in terms of newly rented space.

Poland is becoming more serious player

- Our data clearly show that Poland is a market with strong foundations. This is confirmed by the latest GUS data showing positive mood among consumers, high demand, regular supply. We can predict that demand will remain high - adds Tomasz Olszewski from JLL.

High interest on the part of tenants will be accompanied in 2019 by unflagging developer activity. At the end of 2018, 1.9 million square meters was created in Poland. Upper Silesia turned out to be the number one region, with around 420 000 square meters under construction.

New locations appear and will continue to appear, 25 percent net demand in 2018 was concentrated outside the five main markets. This is due to the situation on the labor market. In the light of record-low unemployment, decisions on the location of the warehouse are increasingly made by investors who take into account the staff availability and employment costs in the logistics sector.

The labor market is a concern

In 2019, the situation with Ukrainian employees may be a problem. There is information about the possible migration of Ukrainian workers to Germany. The local government has passed a new law, thanks to which it would be much easier for Ukrainian workers to take up jobs behind our western border. For now, however, these are purely theoretical fears. Berlin ensures that the package is targeted primarily at qualified specialists from outside the EU.

More and more space is being constructed speculatively by developers, which means that they are becoming more and more confident that the space will be quickly rented. It also means that they assess the economic situation in Poland well, they see development opportunities and they look optimistically in the future. This is an unusually good forecast for 2019.

E-commerce leads the way

The warehouse market in 2019 will be powered by e-commerce. The demand for modern warehouse space will grow. The JLL report shows, for example, that the largest projects to be completed in the next few quarters are halls for e-commerce operators in Gliwice and Olsztynek.

The ownership structure changes from year to year. The market is no longer dominated by 2-3 developers, now about 50 percent of the entire supply is for 5 owners. This is caused by transactions on the investment market.

The upward trend in the investment market in logistics properties has been maintaining since 2014, and the past year was a record year in this respect. The dynamically growing appetite of investors for a full range of assets can be observed throughout the country.

Over the past year, the owners changed 90 parks with a total area of ​​almost 3.2 million square meters. This was over 20 percent of total resources located in Poland, which well reflects the scale of the phenomenon. In the coming months, we can still expect high activity from investors, driven by both sales of large portfolios and smaller individual assets.