The H1 2023 results in Poland clearly reflected the overall performance of the European market. Total H1 occupier demand totalled 1.95 million m², 73% of which were new leases and expansions. As of June 2023 the under-construction pipeline stood at 2.5 million m², and was pretty much evenly divided between secured and speculative developments. The first half of 2023 in the warehousing market is summarised by experts from JLL, the leading real estate consultancy.
The Polish warehouse real estate market has slowed after a record period of growth that was achieved during the pandemic. Gross demand for warehouse space in Poland for Q1 2023 totalled more than 982,000 sqm, a 35 percent year-on-year drop and an 18 percent decline compared to the five-year average. According to JLL's analysis, however, Q1 2023 was better than the corresponding periods in 2019 and 2020. Most of the new demand was in Poland's major logistics regions.
Consultancy firm JLL has analysed conditions in the warehouse and industrial space market in the period covering Q1-Q3 2022. The compilation of the collected data made it possible to identify several trends:
JLL, the full-service real estate advisory summarises the first half of 2022 in the warehouse market, which looks at trends and the latest moves from the market’s participants. JLL’s market analysis shows that:
Interest in new space on the industrial market continues to grow. Developers are acting at an increasingly fast pace to respond to emerging needs. As a result, supply and demand records, driven largely by e-commerce, were once again set.
Spectacular net take-up of 3.5 million sqm at the end of Q3 was better than any other total for the first three quarters of a year. The Polish market was also one of the driving forces behind the record demand in Europe.
Demand for warehouses at 3.15 million sqm and new supply at 1.14 million sqm set new H1 records for the industrial market. Poland registers Europe’s second highest developer activity with over three million sqm under construction.
The growing maturity of the Polish industrial real estate sector is directing investor attention towards urban logistics properties. According to data from JLL and SEGRO, available investment land and the possibility to extend existing parks in the eight largest agglomerations allow for the development of up to 4 million sqm which could meet the increase in demand.
The third quarter in Poland’s industrial sector saw a fairly positive sentiment among tenants and developers. At the end of September, the country was the second most active market in Europe in terms of net demand and the amount of space delivered. Warehouse investment in Poland was approximately EUR 2.2 billion between January and November, setting an all-time annual record.
Gross demand was 2.2 million sqm – this is the best result for the first half of the year in the market’s history. New leases and expansions accounted for nearly 1.7 million sqm, which is a 30% improvement Y-O-Y. This means that Poland is the only country in Europe to have seen net demand growth.
2.5 million sqm was leased in the first three quarters of 2019 and by the end of the year, demand will most likely exceed 3 million sqm. 2019 has seen developers deliver two million sqm to market, with a total stock now stands at almost 18 million sqm.
The importance of new locations on the industrial real estate market in Poland looks set to rapidly grow - this is the conclusion that can be drawn from the “Small town, big deal” report prepared by JLL in cooperation with Hillwood Poland and ManpowerGroup. The so-called Big Five still remain the growth engine and continuously attract the majority of investments. However, cities such as Konin, Kielce and Częstochowa are the rising stars of the Polish industrial market.
Poland’s industrial market once again proved to be strong and buoyant. Total demand of 960,000 m² transacted on in Q4 boosted the annual volume of leased floor-space to 3.7 million m². Results were very close to last year’s record figures, making 2018 the second best year in the history of the market.
The outstanding market performance seen in 2017 maintained its strength in the first quarter of this year. The continuous activity by occupiers has driven the gross take-up to rise to an unprecedented high of 1.1 million m² and helped to boost Q1 volumes by double digits as compared to the corresponding period from last year. Such a beginning of the year gives plenty reasons for us to be as optimistic as ever.
The spectacular, record-setting results from 2017, which exceeded the expectations of most market players, allow one to go into 2018 with widespread optimism. Total space leased under new agreements and extensions in 2017 exceeded 3.1 million m², which is nearly 1 million m² more than in 2016. When lease renewals are added the gross take-up rises to more than 3.9 million m². In Q4 2017 alone, net take-up was more than 1.3 million m², slightly more than the figure for all of H1 2017 period. But what is behind those great numbers?
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