Poland Industrial Market H1 2017

The half-way point in 2017 sees Poland’s industrial market closer to another record-breaking year. The excellent momentum seen in Q1 was even more pronounced in Q2, with gross take-up reaching 864,000 m² in that quarter alone, resulting in a total of 1.72 million m² being leased in the first six months of this year.


That result was the best the market has ever seen in terms of gross take-up, as well as net take-up. Interestingly, demand was driven predominantly by 659,000 m² in Q2 coming from new lease agreements and expansions (together representing 76% of total take-up). This was partly the result of a number of BTS deals, which accounted for more than 30% of new leases area. According to the JLL supply Chain Activity Index* for Poland, the warehousing take-up forecast for Q1-Q3 points to demand which will be at least 20% higher year-on-year.

In the second quarter Panattoni kept its dominant position in terms of leased space, as almost 46% of new deals were attributable to that single developer (56% of net take-up in H1). Unsurprisingly, the most active sectors were retailers, logistics operators and light manufacturing. Interestingly, this was another quarter when retailers (including e-commerce players) had the largest share of market demand (34.1%).

The region which was the most sought-after by tenants in Q2 2017 was Central Poland, where deals were signed for a total of 282,000 m², which was some 43% of net take-up. Due to having such a high share last quarter, Central Poland also became the leader in the first half of 2017, overtaking Upper Silesia, Warsaw (both the Suburbs and the Inner City zones) and Wrocław.

Supply

 At the end of H1 2017 Poland’s industrial and warehouse stock stood at 11.9 million m², which makes Poland the eighth largest market among European nations. After the record volume of new completions in Q1, which totaled 538,000 m², in second quarter of 2017 the market experienced a slowdown in terms of new supply: slightly above 177,000 m² was delivered, mainly in major markets. Most of the new completions were in the Warsaw Suburbs (48,000 m²), the Tri City, Kraków and Poznań. New stock was delivered in the parks of six major developers: 7R Logistic, P3, Panattoni, Prologis, Segro and Waimea Holdings.

Rents

Prime headline rents remained mainly stable throughout Q2; however, we did see a slight increase in rents in Upper Silesia. The most expensive industrial space is still found in Warsaw Inner City and Kraków, where rents range from €4.1 to €5.1 / m² / month and €3.8 to €4.5 / m² / month, respectively. The lowest rents for big box units are in Central Poland, at €2.6 to €3.2 / m² / month, followed by two large, but still rapidly developing regions: Upper Silesia (€2.8 to €3.6 / m² / month) and Poznań (€2.8 to €3.5 / m² / month). However, upward pressure on rents is likely to appear. The above rents do not include incentives from landlords and should be treated as basis for negotiations.

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